Donald Trump

[stylofone]

Happy story - a website set up for businesses to declare that they are pro-MAGA has become a handy resource for people who want to boycott pro-MAGA businesses.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/publicsq ... 50c6839b0b

[stylofone]

The tariff bomb has a long fuse. It takes at least 30 days for a container ship to get to the US. There are predictions of pandemic-style shortages starting soon. May 10, according to one comment I read, but I assume it varies depending on the shipping route, port, product or industry. This will be a test of complex, fragile systems. Maybe there are contingencies in place, but I wouldn't count on it. This article highlights July 4 fireworks, but if I was in the US right now, I'd be stockpiling medication first.

The consequence will be “empty shelves in U.S. stores in a few weeks and covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist for Apollo Global Management. Fewer goods reaching American shores will mean higher prices on the goods that are in stores — as well as less work for dockworkers and truck drivers. “Significant” layoffs in trucking, logistics and retail are likely as soon as May, Slok said.

“It feels like this slow-motion wave that’s coming toward us, but not here yet,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard University professor who served as a senior economist in the Obama administration.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... r-AA1DHCXK

[stevebrooks]

The tariff bomb has a long fuse. It takes at least 30 days for a container ship to get to the US. There are predictions of pandemic-style shortages starting soon. May 10, according to one comment I read, but I assume it varies depending on the shipping route, port, product or industry. This will be a test of complex, fragile systems. Maybe there are contingencies in place, but I wouldn't count on it. This article highlights July 4 fireworks, but if I was in the US right now, I'd be stockpiling medication first.

The consequence will be “empty shelves in U.S. stores in a few weeks and covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist for Apollo Global Management. Fewer goods reaching American shores will mean higher prices on the goods that are in stores — as well as less work for dockworkers and truck drivers. “Significant” layoffs in trucking, logistics and retail are likely as soon as May, Slok said.

“It feels like this slow-motion wave that’s coming toward us, but not here yet,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard University professor who served as a senior economist in the Obama administration.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... r-AA1DHCXK

Yeah it's like this, there's a 30-45 day transit for good from China to reach the US depending on which side of the country they are going to, since the huge tariffs started there's been a 44% drop in ships leaving China to the US, ships in transit will arrive of course, but that doesn't mean those goods actually get to the end consumer, some companies may simply not bother picking them up because they have shut up shop, small businesses can't afford to take them, it's cheaper to lose the money they paid for the goods to China than an extra 145% they lose to tariffs, so these goods are never going to arrive. Large companies with big budgets, car importers for instance, just hold the stock in bonded warehouses so the tariffs don't need to be paid in the hopes that in a few months the tariffs will end. So everything that left China is still in transit.

Now here's the thing, if there are no orders from the US for goods China stops making them and starts making goods for other countries, they switch tooling, patterns etc, so even if the tariffs ended tomorrow there's another pause for them to switch back tooling and production for US orders, so there's going to be minimum two months delay in goods starting to flow again if the tariffs ended tomorrow, with Transit times make that three months. So that will be 3 months for trucking companies to collapse, workers to leave industries and move elsewhere to find work, small businesses to collapse, and that's nest case scenario.

Trump at the moment has shown no sign of dropping the tariffs, but even if he did tomorrow, and you going to order big right away? I mean what if he chucks a wobbly in a week and suddenly puts the tariffs back on because China won't cooperate? I would suggest, if it ever does, it will be at least a year for things to get back to normal if the tariffs were to vanish and everything went back to Biden Normal simply because no-one will trust this admin for that long.

Mainstream Americans haven't noticed anything but increased prices so far, but increased prices are different to stuff just not being there, you can work with increased prices for a while, borrow money, extend the life of that old car for another year, eat beans on toast a few times a week, but stuff simply not being there, that's entirely different, that will happen in a few weeks because the tail of the supply chain has been cut a long way away and you can pulling that tail until it ends, and then suddenly there's nothing. If he thinks his popularity is tanking now wait till that happens.

[stylofone]

If he thinks his popularity is tanking now wait till that happens.

I am SOOOO looking forward to the "find out" stage getting under way in earnest!

[stylofone]

The quotes from the Time magazine Trump interview highlighted by the ABC website today. You decide if this is the sign of a competent leader or a clueless clown.

Your trade adviser, Peter Navarro, says 90 deals in 90 days is possible. We're now 13 days into the point from when you lifted the reciprocal, the discounted reciprocal tariffs. There's zero deals so far. Why is that?

No, there’s many deals.

When are they going to be announced?

You have to understand, I'm dealing with all the companies, very friendly countries. We're meeting with China. We're doing fine with everybody. But ultimately, I've made all the deals.

Not one has been announced yet. When are you going to announce them?

I’ve made 200 deals.

You’ve made 200 deals?

100%.

I’m just curious, why don’t you announce these deals that you’ve solidified?

I would say, over the next three to four weeks, and we're finished, by the way.

You’re finished?

We’ll be finished.

Oh, you will be finished in three to four weeks.

I’ll be finished. Now, some countries may come back and ask for an adjustment, and I'll consider that, but I'll basically be, with great knowledge, setting—ready? We're a department store, a giant department store, the biggest department store in history. Everybody wants to come in and take from us.

Will you call President Xi if he doesn’t call you?

No.

You won’t?

Nope.

Has he called you yet?

Yep.

When did he call you?

He's called. And I don't think that's a sign of weakness on his behalf.

But you would think it’s a sign of weakness if you called him?

I don’t–I just look—

Well, what did he say?

If people want to–well, we all want to make deals. But I am this giant store. It's a giant, beautiful store, and everybody wants to go shopping there. And on behalf of the American people, I own the store, and I set prices, and I'll say, if you want to shop here, this is what you have to pay.

Well let’s talk about the tariffs. You want companies to build and make goods here in America.

Not in all cases. There are some products I really don't want to make here.

Like t-shirts?

I can’t–I can give you a list because I actually have a list, but if you want, I could give it to you.

Well, I mean, the question is, how can CEOs make long-term plans and investments if our tariff policy can change from day to day and still remains so uncertain?

How can they make long-term investments? I'll turn it around. How can they make long-term investments if our country is losing $2 trillion a year on trade?

Will you consider giving exemptions—

No wait, just so you understand. How can we sustain and how is it sustainable that our country lost almost $2 trillion on trade in Biden years, in this last year. That's not—when you talk about a company. I had the head of Walmart yesterday, right in that seat. I had the head of Walmart. I had the head of Home Depot and the head of Target in my office. And I'll tell you what they think, they think what I'm doing is exactly right.

Well, the CEOs of small businesses are saying they may not be able to last another two months with the current regime in place. Will you consider giving small businesses an exemption similar to what you've given to Big Tech?

I’d have to look at the individual business.

Would you consider it?

Our country is going to be very rich in not a long period of time. I've been doing this for three months, and if you look at the kind of numbers that we're taking in and the jobs, and if you look at, more importantly, the companies, the chip companies, the car companies, the Apple. $500 billion. Apple is investing $500 billion in building plants. They never invested in this country.

Small businesses are worried that you’re treating the Apples of the world better than you’re treating them.

No, I’m treating small businesses—small businesses will be a bigger beneficiary of what I'm doing than than the large businesses. But everybody's going to benefit.

If we still have high tariffs, whether it's 20% or 30% or 50%, on foreign imports a year from now, will you consider that a victory?

Total victory.

Why so?

Because the country will be making a fortune.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-29/ ... /105223726

[stevebrooks]

I see where Trump gets a lot of his stupid ideas from now!

“And the second time, I run the country and the world.”

Yes he actually thinks he runs the world, this is why he thought he could end the war in day one, because all he had to do was tell them what to do and they would obey!

They call him the emperor with no clothes, more like the emperor with no clues!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-run-co ... ccounter=1

[stylofone]

Conservatives lose in Canada. It feels good. Now let's get rid of Dutton. Remember his immortal words about Trump just two months ago. A thinker. Unbelievable!

The President's a dealmaker, he's a thinker - he brings people together. That's the transaction that has been his life.

[stevebrooks]

Conservatives lose in Canada. It feels good. Now let's get rid of Dutton. Remember his immortal words about Trump just two months ago. A thinker. Unbelievable!

The President's a dealmaker, he's a thinker - he brings people together. That's the transaction that has been his life.

They should be winning by more really, but given the position before Trump was elected and the short time frame since then it's a major win. In January they were 20 points underwater compared to conservatives, the conservatives dropped 15 points and the Liberals picked up over 20 points, that's fucking amazing for 4 months or so of politics, swings like that in such a short period of time hardly ever happen, and it's all down to Trump I think, if he had kept his fucking mouth shut and held off on tariffs a little bit longer the Conservatives would have walked in!

While the swing has also happened in Australia, both parties have actually declined, it's just that the Coalition has done such a bad job they have declined faster, it should be interesting to see the results in our election. The Coalition is still uncomfortably close and greens and independents are pulling votes from both parties, but I am pleased to see WA has a good lead on a state by state basis.

[pipbarber]

It's actually been a relatively quiet day for maga madness. I really hope the orange tumor sparks up over the next few days. They've arrested an Irish born woman who has lived legally in the US for four decades but i don't know how widely disseminated these types of stories are on broadcast news. Is free to air tv reporting this? Are the slightly less unhinged Murdoch rags reporting this? I don't know.

I just wish Albo would be a bit more on the front foot about our rejection of maga lawlessness. I really think it would help. I get that he doesn't want to provoke maga for national security reasons but he's got to take a long view. The maga movement will burn to cinders and all it's supporters will be humiliated and embarrassed...if they haven't destroyed the world to avoid that situation. It's a pretty safe position to take for Labor, i reckon.

[stevebrooks]

Trump has announced 3 countries in his trade agreement process, India, Japan and South Korea. But let's be clear that's really only 2 countries, you see South Korea has had a Free Trade Agreement with the US since 2007, no tariffs, nothing, nada. That is until Trump slapped on his reciprocal tariffs, if they go to a Free Trade Agreement now it's nothing more than ripping up the 2007 Free Trade Agreement and then sticky taping it back together.

The other thing to be wary of is the language, a lot of news outlets are crowing about the agreements as if they are a done deal, I have corrected people on youtube who say the US has made a trade agreement with India, it's hot air at the moment and could all come to nothing;

WASHINGTON, April 30 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he has "potential" trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan as he seeks to convert his tariff policy into trade agreements.
At a town hall on the NewsNation television network, Trump was asked when he would be announcing agreements with those three countries. "We have potential deals" with them, he said.

Potential deals means....well....nothing, we don't have deals, we are talking about having deals but we haven't actually settled on anything at all, as Trump says;

Trump said he was in no rush to conclude the deals because the United States is reaping the benefits of the tariffs he has imposed.
"I'm in less of a hurry than you are. We are sitting on the catbird seat. They want us. We don't need them," he said.

It's bizarre, if the US is reaping such great benefits from the tariffs, well, why drop them or bother negotiating at all? If the current situation is so great for the US why bother changing it, just keep the tariffs. It simply doesn't make sense in any world, but then recent videos I have seen of Trump in interview clearly indicate he is losing it big time.

So there are no deals, the latest I head about India was they were talking about a framework to set up negotiations to discuss a trade agreement, so not a potential trade agreement at all, just an agreement to talk about setting up talks to discuss a trade deal....so nothing, but just something to announce for the MAGA masses

https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-say ... 025-05-01/