Donald Trump

[pipbarber]

It's the first episode today of the new season of Electoral Politics US. It's bound to be the most unmissable season since the last one. The first episode, set in Iowa, looks like a pretty standard intro but you never know with reality TV.

After Iowa, only 49 to go before the big finale.

My god....leaders of the 'free' world, our number 1 military partner. US electoral politics is really more in the horror genre than anything else. Less worseism dialed to its maximum setting, but for me and despite all that, i can't take my eyes off it. It's like when you slow down to look at the aftermath of a car crash.

Edit: Do we need a thread on the US election?

[stevebrooks]

Do people who write the headlines for articles actually have any idea what's in the article itself, because it doesn't appear so!

Headline;

‘TREMENDOUS NIGHT’: First major sign Donald Trump could win in 2024

Quite from article;

If the predicted landslide is forthcoming, Trump’s grip on the nomination would appear unshakeable, but a sub-par winning margin could open the door to his main rivals Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis — currently locked in a battle for distant second.

“I think we are going to have a tremendous night tonight,” Trump said in a video posted on social media. “The people are fantastic and I’ve never seen spirit like they have.”

The headline appears to imply Trump has all but won the Presidency, the article of course says nothing similar but does seem to be implying a red wave based solely in Trump's statements, of course it's news.com so they are going to promote Trump, however lets just think back on the midterm so called Red Wave that turned out in the end to be a nothing burger, and seems to be shrinking even as we sit here as another GOP representative resigns, reducing the GOP lead in Congress by 1 less.

“I’m asking you to go out, brave the cold and support me in the Iowa Caucus,” DeSantis posted on X, formerly Twitter. “You will never have an opportunity to have your vote make more of an impact than you will tonight!”

At least he didn't go the full Trump and suggest going out to vote for him even if they die because dying would be worth it just to vote for Trump!

https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/le ... 7abc994c6d

[stevebrooks]

Oops, nice timing, 4 years late.

4,000 votes taken from Biden and given to Trump, didn't make a difference though. Lucky it wasn't a close state.

[stevebrooks]

He's won the primary in Iowa but that wasn't really unexpected considering the other candidates, are they worse than him? It's hard to say, they aspire to be like him that's for sure.

[pipbarber]

He's won the primary in Iowa but that wasn't really unexpected considering the other candidates, are they worse than him? It's hard to say, they aspire to be like him that's for sure.

DeSantis, haley and rama (2nd, 3rd and 4th) are all Trumpians. They're attempting to out Trump Trump, which is idiotic - unless, of course, Trump is prevented from standing in November by the supreme court or drops dead. It's the steven bradbury strategy. On that level, i guess it makes sense, given the probability of 10 thousand buckets of KFC eventually catching up with the orange abscess.

[stevebrooks]

He's won the primary in Iowa but that wasn't really unexpected considering the other candidates, are they worse than him? It's hard to say, they aspire to be like him that's for sure.

DeSantis, haley and rama (2nd, 3rd and 4th) are all Trumpians. They're attempting to out Trump Trump, which is idiotic - unless, of course, Trump is prevented from standing in November by the supreme court or drops dead. It's the steven bradbury strategy. On that level, i guess it makes sense, given the probability of 10 thousand buckets of KFC eventually catching up with the orange abscess.

Well funnily enough Trump got just over 50% of the votes in some counties, and the proportion of votes when viewed by age were radically different, with younger voters going majorly for the category of "not Trump," which I think a lot of it was simply refusing to vote for Trump no matter who the other nominees were. But extrapolating that out, in some areas "not Trump's" got just under 50% of the vote, the fact there was a choice of 3 probably diluted the impact, but what if those "not Trump's" also do the same in the Presidential election, the "not Trumps" may vote for someone else or simply not vote at all if he is the nominee, and that could make a huge dent in the Republican vote.

[pipbarber]

I think the result of Iowa would fall into the 'big win' category. In 2016 he lost to ted cruz with 24%. All abnormal occurrences aside, Trump is likely to win almost every state. But it means nothing when november arrives.

[stylofone]

Teh Graun's analysts. The first one looks for precedents: ooooh but Ted Cruz won Iowa in 2016, so don't miss the rest of this exciting series. It's meaningless. The Republican Party is now the Trump party, there is no contest for the leader of the Trump Party. It's Trump. The only reason to run in the primaries is not to beat him, it's so you can slot into place if he drops dead from an overdose of Diet Coke BEFORE the election. I suspect any primary challenger is ruled out of being Trump's running mate.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... t-it-means

[stylofone]

Ignorance is strength...

Typically, defeated presidential candidates fade from memory, never able to shake the taint of the loss. Mr Trump, however, has managed to convince Republicans - here in Iowa and nationally - that he didn't lose.

A large majority of caucus-goers in Iowa told CBS they believed Mr Trump was the actual winner of the 2020 presidential election - a number that increased to 90% among Trump supporters.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67989443

Also, a potential Mike Pence mark 2, but I bet this one would do his master's bidding when it came to certifying the results on Jan 6. From teh Graun again:

But for all the Maga grotesques in the room, perhaps there was no more significant figure on stage than Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, the first Republican primary candidate to drop out and endorse Trump.

The former president thanked him. Then came the tell: “He’s one of the best governors in our country and I hope that I’m going to be able to call on you to be a piece of the administration, a very important piece of the administration.”

It was another chilling echo of 2016 when, one by one, Trump’s opponents and critics buckled and backed him, often because they saw it as a pathway to power. Once again, the Republican party is bending to the will of the brash would-be authoritarian.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... e-election

[stevebrooks]

I think the result of Iowa would fall into the 'big win' category. In 2016 he lost to ted cruz with 24%. All abnormal occurrences aside, Trump is likely to win almost every state. But it means nothing when november arrives.

I don't think there's any doubt that Trump will be the nominee, but honestly win or lose the Presidency it is the worst outcome for the Republican Party, essentially there is no Republican Party anymore and his win will cement that. Multiple state Republican Parties are seriously short of money to the point of going broke, the endless grift from Trump et al has eroded the Republican funding base to the point where it can no longer support them, and that won't stop as long as Trump is calling the shots. The only question really is, can the US survive another Trump presidential run, even if he loses it's going to be chaos!

I personally don't think he will win the Presidency, but there will be violence, Jan 6th was a clear indication he won't go down without his supporters going ape shit.